Saturday, July 19, 2014

19/7/2014: Some Early Signs of Crimean Economy Suffering Sustained Slowdown



A very interesting data coming out of Crimea - early indicators of the cost of Crimea's incorporation into Russia: http://www.infox.sg/others/frame/krym-prishel-v-upadok/

Roughly translating some parts of the article:

Tourism is suffering in Crimea - the sector is the cornerstone of the regional economy, but over the first 6 months of 2014, number of visitors to Crimea fell ca 29.5% y/y at 1,772,000 visitors as opposed to the same period of 2013 when Crimea received 2,515,000 visitors. The issue, of course, is not solely down to Crimea's accession to Russia - given the state of civil war in Ukraine and the collapse of the country economy, there can be expected a massive reduction in the number of travellers to all parts of Ukraine. Given recessionary dynamics in Russia, there also can be expected to be fewer tourists visiting all Black Sea resorts over this summer.

According to Ukrainian estimates, overall number of Ukrainians travelling to the Black Sea resorts (including those in Ukraine proper) is projected to fall by some 30% this year due to deepening economic crisis and falling real incomes.


The collapse of tourism to Crimea is probably a temporary phenomena. And much of it is due to disruptions in transport routes. For example, ferry crossings from Russian mainland rose 2.8 times, air traffic rose 1.6 times. However rail transport numbers fell 2.8 times. Rail goes via Ukrainian mainland, so this is not surprising. There is no land connection to Crimea from Russia and ferry and airlines capacities are very limited, although they will be expanded over time. The bridge, linking Crimea to Russian mainland will likely take 2 years to build and estimated costs range from USD2 to 4 billion.

As the result, at the start of the tourism season, Crimea's resorts reported 63% vacancy rates.

In the past, roughly two thirds of visitors to Crimea were Ukrainian nationals, with one third being Russian nationals. While the former are understandably cancelling their plans to vacation in Crimea, the latter are finding it difficult to get to the resorts: majority of Russian visitors in the past opted to travel either by car or by rail - both of these routes are now firmly blocked. Meanwhile, airports in Crimea are too small to accommodate significant numbers of visitors and their capacity is now already stretched to the limit. Two major carriers Transaero and Dobrolet are reporting 100% and 98-99% loads on their flights.

While much of this suggests that the problems with tourism sector are temporary, there are some worrying parallels across all sectors of Crimean economy. Apparently, lack of compliance with certification relating to EU requirement that any exports from Crimea can be accepted only if they bear certification from Ukraine, is reducing industrial output in Crimea. And European sanctions that ban exports from Crimea are hitting the sector hard. In the past, EU accounted for over 35% of total exports from Crimea. Now this is down to USD5.9 million and accounts for just 10.2% of total exports. Largest shares of exports to EU go to Germany (4.5%) and Hungary (2.1%), while Austria, France, Poland, the Netherlands and Lithuania accounted, jointly for 3.6%. Exports were heavily concentrated in industrial machinery, chemicals and agricultural goods. Meanwhile, shipments to Russia are rising, but slower than the decline is exports to EU.

Overall, the problems in tourism sector appear to be much more significant than in the industrial and agricultural sectors but these problems appear to be linked to:

  1. Temporary transport links problems;
  2. Decline in travel in Ukraine and Russia due to the economic slowdown; and
  3. Much more longer term issue of Ukrainian tourists switching away from Crimea.



19/7/2014: Global Innovation Index 2014: Ireland vs 'Periphery'


In the previous post I gave detailed breakdown of Ireland's performance in Global Innovation Index 2014. I used small open economies and Switzerland (the world's highest ranked economy) as a reference group.

Here, primarily for the reason of convention, are the comparatives of Ireland's performance relative to the Euro area 'peripheral' states:


Clearly, Ireland is a much stronger performer in Innovation than all other 'peripheral' states. This is neither surprising nor unexpected. Crucially, the gap is wider today than in 2007-2008 and the gap is rather persistent over time. Average ex-Ireland 'peripheral' state rank was 34st in 2014 against Ireland's 11th, this is a very significant gap. This gap increased from 16-19 points on average for 2007-2010 period to 32 points in 2012 and 23 points in 2014.

Furthermore, it appears that even if we are to abstract away from the metrics very heavily influenced by the tax optimising MNCs, Ireland (under such a metric closer to 20th-23rd position in the World rankings) would still post a stronger performance than any other 'peripheral' state (best - Spain at 27th).

19/7/2014: Global Innovation Index 2014: Ireland's Performance


Global Innovation Index is out this week and the 2014 edition focus is on Human Capital (here) a topic close to my heart (see my TEDx talk on this here).

Here are some interesting comparatives taken over the Index history for Ireland and its core peers.

Firstly, in 2014, top 20 ranks are:

Ireland shows good performance, with 11th place in 2014, slightly down on 10th place in 2013 and significantly down on 7th place in 2012 rankings, but still better than historical average of 16th rank.

Here is evolution of Irish rankings over time, compared to other small open economies of Europe that rank in top 25 this year:

Not a bad performance for Ireland, I must say, though we should be aiming for a place in the top-10.

However, over longer time horizon our performance is second best in the group of peer economies:


The above chart highlights top 3 performers in terms of rankings dynamics (green bars) and worst 3 performers (red bars).

It is worth noting that Luxembourg is, in my view, an economy that simply should not be ranked due to massive distortions in its rankings induced by large share of the companies operating in the country only as post-box offices and due to huge proportion of its workforce not being residents of the country. In Ireland, there are some distortions as well, and these are very significant, but of magnitude they are much smaller than those in Luxembourg.

Here are some Ireland vs Switzerland comparatives in specific sub-indices:

Institutions:

The above shows relatively strong performance for Ireland, except for:

  • Political Stability and Environment
  • Government Effectiveness
Ireland leads Switzerland strongly on
  • Business Environment metrics


Human Capital and Research:

Overall, we have a strong lead compared to Switzerland in:

  • Education, when it comes to Spending on Education and on School Life Expectancy (so we spend more and our students stay in school longer, on average)
  • Tertiary Enrolment (we have more student-age people in tertiary education)
We significantly lag Switzerland in:
  • Tertiary Inbound Mobility (ability to attract students into Ireland)
  • R&D
  • Researchers
  • Spending on R&D
  • University Rankings (quality of education)


 Infrastructure:

We outperform Switzerland in nothing, save for GDP per unit of energy use, which is of course consistent with the fact that a larger share of our GDP accrues to tax optimisation than in the already low-tax Switzerland.

We lag Switzerland in everything else...

Market Sophistication:

We lead Switzerland in Credit, thanks to allegedly greater ease of getting credit in Ireland (I am not sure what the Index analysts mean by that, given that our credit supply is negative). Despite beating Swiss in 'credit' we lag them in Investment, which, presumably means that while we borrow more and easier, we do not invest what we borrow... may be it is because our businesses are buying BMWs and Mercs instead of machinery and technology? I have no idea...

Business Sophistication:

Remember that Ireland beats Switzerland on Ease of Doing Business. But with all that 'Ease' around, we are really not that far up on Switzerland in actual Business Sophistication... and if we strip out FDI inflows and imports of high tech equipment and inputs (a proxy for how many ICT MNCs we have 'operating' from here), we are probably actually ranked lower than Swiss.

Knowledge & Technology Outputs:

When it comes to actual Knowledge & Tech outputs, all of the above 'advantages' of Ireland over Switzerland vanish. Just as Savings vs Investments, we are good on inputs, but much less good on deriving anything meaningful from them. Control for tax optimisation activities of ICT services MNCs in Ireland and we sink even further below Switzerland.

Creative Outputs:

We are keen on painting Ireland as a Creative Land, while the Swiss are, as we often note, boring and 'Germanic' - aka not creative and too stringent. Right? Not really. Swiss beat us hands down on Creative Output metrics. We only outperform them in terms of Wikipedia edits and YouTube uploads - presumably due to the need to control our reputation by editing out unpleasant references to our social and industry and politics 'stars' from the public domain and down to our 'craic' in pubs and bars that get mistakenly posted on-line... I am, of course, being slightly sarcastic.

So net conclusions (on serious note):

  1. We are getting better and are strong performers when it comes to many 'inputs' into Innovation; but
  2. We are not that great in deriving 'outputs' from the 'inputs' we commit.
  3. Much of the performance upside for Ireland is down to distortionary activities of a handful of MNCs trading from Ireland; and
  4. Much of the performance downside for Ireland is down to indigenous activities of the rest of our economy.

Friday, July 18, 2014

18/7/2014: IMF Approves Ukrainian Funding... & Pushes the Country into Deeper Austerity


IMF Announced agreement with Ukraine on First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement. Comments in italics are mine.

Mr. Nikolay Gueorguiev, mission chief for Ukraine, made the following statement today in Kyiv: “The mission has reached understandings with the Ukrainian authorities on the policies necessary for the completion of the first review under the SBA… the authorities have committed to take a number of policy actions prior to the completion of the review. …The completion of the review would enable the disbursement of ...about US$1.4 billion. The mission found that policies have generally been implemented as planned and that all but one of the performance criteria for end-May have been met. All structural benchmarks for the first review have been met as well, although some of them with a delay. This is a notable achievement as the intensification of the conflict in the East means that the program has been implemented in an environment that is considerably more difficult than anticipated when it was launched."

It is worth noting that IMF generally does not lend to countries in a state of civil war or major insurgency. Presumably, when it does lend to such countries, the conditions for lending allow for the risk of acceleration of the conflict. It appears IMF is taken by the surprise by the continuation of the conflict and by amplification in both the Ukrainian Government offensive and the rebels' defensive stances:

“The conflict is putting increasing strain on the program [after just a MONTH of the programme existence?!] and a number of key elements of the macroeconomic framework have had to be revised: (i) economic prospects have deteriorated notably, and GDP is now expected to contract by 6.5 percent this year, compared to 5 percent when the program was adopted; (ii) a shortfall in revenue collections in the East, higher security spending, and lower-than-expected debt collection by Naftogaz will cause fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficits and financing needs to rise above the programmed path; and (iii) higher-than-expected capital outflows and monetization of fiscal deficits are causing pressures on net international reserves."

Ok, one can excuse IMF for missing the forecast, but points (ii) and (iii) risks were predictable and material even BEFORE the programme started. One has to wonder, did IMF extend funds under the assumptions that 

  1. The conflict will somehow go away without major costs on the ground?
  2. The Government will be able to engage in revenue collection in rebel-controlled areas?
  3. Naftogaz will be able to do more successfully that which the Government is failing to do?
  4. Capital outflows will be benign and monetization of fiscal deficits will not be aggressive to compensate for (1)-(3)?


Things get worse. “Notwithstanding the authorities' continued commitment to the program and good record of implementation so far, the authorities have decided to take a number of compensatory measures to limit the negative impact of the conflict in the short run, and ensure that key program objectives are achieved over the period of the two-year program".

This sounds actually fine, except when you start reading into what exactly the IMF prescribed for the authorities and what they did in the wake of this prescription:

  • Point 1: "On fiscal policy, the authorities have decided to implement a package of revenue and expenditure measures, amounting to 1 percent of GDP in 2014, offsetting the effect of increased security spending by other expenditure cuts. They have also committed to limiting wage and pension increases to the level of inflation in 2015, continuing reform-based reduction in public sector employment, and exercising tight control over discretionary spending." Set aside the issue of 2015. Look at NOW. The country is in a civil war, it is facing into the prospect of medium-term rebuilding and peace-building. Government response: cut spending, increase allocation to defense. The latter is necessary, no doubt. But the former is simply inconsistent with the need to build peace and rebuild infrastructure and businesses and peoples' lives. De facto, IMF is pushing Ukraine into austerity just at the time as the country is going through a civil war! As a fiscal hawk, I have to ask if this is simply mad?
  • Point 2: "In the energy sector, the authorities are taking additional actions to strengthen payment discipline and compliance, such as pursuing payments from collectible accounts and seizing assets if repayment is not forthcoming. They are also preparing to restructure Naftogaz with a view to improve the transparency of its operations and reduce costs." Should second take place before the first? Should Naftogaz be reformed to increase its legitimacy and democratic acceptance and only AFTER that should it pursue more aggressive collection? Remember, again, this is not a society with comfortable margins of income and security!
  • Point 3: "The authorities are taking steps toward strengthening governance and improving the business climate. A recent diagnostic study has identified major areas for reforms. Based on the study’s recommendations the authorities plan to implement a wide range of anti-corruption measures, including establishment of an independent anti-corruption agency with broad investigative powers and adoption of legislative amendments to support the anti-corruption effort." This is an area where progress is necessary and vital. And it is good to see Ukrainian Government taking serious reps here, if only academic ones for now.

I will skip monetary policy points identified by the IMF - these are technical and, for now, theoretically supportive of the economy.

So two sets of 'compensatory' policies are de facto a road to disaster, one is the road toward potentially better future and one is technically supportive of the present. 

Still, the Fund is pleased: “On the strength of these compensatory measures and continued implementation of other policies agreed when the program was approved, staff is confident that the program can achieve its fundamental objectives of restoring internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium, generating sound and sustainable economic growth, and strengthening economic governance and transparency. In particular, while the combined fiscal and quasi fiscal deficits are projected to amount to 10.1 and 5.8 percent of GDP in 2014 and 2015, respectively—compared to previous targets of 8.5 and 6.1 percent—the structural adjustment is stronger by ½ percent of GDP over 2014-16 and the headline deficit will be below the originally programmed path by 2016. Similarly, gross reserves will be only some US$3.4 billion lower than programmed by end-2015. While external debt to GDP will peak 7 percentage points higher than programmed at end-2015, it will be on a steady downward slope by the end of the program, suggesting that external viability is not at risk." This is a bag full of estimates, assertions and forecasts. We know how these play out in reality even in countries not undergoing a civil war conflict.

But it gets better: “The program hinges crucially on the assumption that the conflict will begin to subside in the coming months." How many months? No idea. What happens in the post-conflict process? No idea. How much destruction will be brought about in resolving the conflict? No projections. Hope, hope and more IMF money… while Ukrainian people and State are doing all the heavy lifting.

I noted months ago that Ukraine will need a Marshall Plan, not an 'emergency liquidity support'. It still does - more than ever. This is not even being discussed.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

17/7/2014: Irish Bilateral Trade in Goods with Russia & Ukraine


A journalist just requested from me some trade stats on Russian and Ukrainian trade with Ireland, so here is a summary table and a chart:


The table above shows irish exports to Russia by category. For comparison, Ukraine:


And totals for 2012-2013 full year:


Russia dwarfs Ukraine as trading partner for Ireland by:

  • Exports - 2012-2013 average levels of goods exports to Russia is at EUR620 million against those to Ukraine at EUR62.2 million.
  • Trade balance: average 2012-2013 goods trade balance wit Russia is at +EUR151.5 million surplus against deficit of -EUR16 million for Ukraine.
  • In trade flows for the first four months of 2014
  • Indigenous exports component of our trade: approximately 40-42% of our trade with Russia related to indigenous sectors of the economy, as opposed to near zero for our exports to Ukraine.

17/7/2014: More Russia Sanctions, Same Pains, Same Strategies


Another set of sanctions and another tumble in Russian shares. This time around, sanctions have impacted major Russian companies with significant ties to the global economy. However, no broad sectoral sanctions were introduced.

The following companies are hit:

  • Rosneft - largest oil producer in Russia
  • Gazprombank - largest bank in Russia outside retail sector
  • VEB - Vnesheconombank 
  • Novatek - largest independent natural gas producer
  • Federal State Unitary Enterprise State Research And Production Enterprise Bazalt, 
  • Feodosia Oil Products Supply Company (in Crimea)
  • Radio-Electronic Technologies Concern KRET 
  • Concern Sozvezdie
  • Military-Industrial Corporation NPO Mashinostroyenia  
  • Defense Consortium Almaz-Antey
  • Kalashnikov Concern
  • KBP Instrument Design Bureau
  • Research and Production Corporation Uralvagonzavod 

Full list here: http://www.treasury.gov/ofac/downloads/ssinew14.pdf

The U.S. Treasury Department said that under new sanctions, the U.S. companies are only prohibited from dealing in "new debt of longer than 90 days maturity or new equity" with the listed non-defence firms. There are no asset freezes, no prohibitions or restrictions on export/import transactions. The sanctions do not impact U.S. and other multinationals' work in Russia, unless Moscow retaliates with such measures (which is unlikely).

This contrasts with previous sanctions under which sanctioned companies were prevented from conducting any transactions, including export/import and clearing with the U.S. firms.

So we are having a clear attempt to undercut some Russian companies' access to the U.S. debt and equity markets, while preserving their ability to trade.

VEB will unlikely feel the pinch. The bank converted the National Wealth Fund deposits into capital recently, so it can offset the shortfall on foreign funding.

Gazprombank is a different issue. Last month, Gazprombank raised EUR1 billion at 4% pa in the foreign markets via a bond sale on the Irish Stock Exchange. Gazprombank has one of the largest exposures to international funding markets of all other Russian financial institutions - it has 78 outstanding eurobond issues demented in a number of currencies. So the real problem with the sanctions is that they may open the way for EU to follow, which can shut Gazprombank from the Euro-denominated debt markets too.

When it comes to Rosneft, sanctions are weak. The U.S. simply cannot afford shutting flows of Russian gas and oil to global markets. Reason? Imagine what oil price will be at, if Rosneft was restricted from trading. The company is responsible for roughly 40% of the total Russian oil production which runs at around 10.5-10.9 million barrels per day. Get Rosneft supply access cut and you have an equivalent of entire Iraq's 2013 output (that's right - total output of Iraq is lower than that of Rosneft alone) drained from the global production. Rosneft pumps more oil than Canada and more than double the output of Norway.

You can read on geopolitics of Russian oil & gas here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/07/1772014-geopolitics-of-russian-gas-oil.html

The real target of the sanctions are pre-paid contracts that Rosneft and Novatek have on future supplies of oil and gas. These are de facto forward loans, repayable with future oil and gas supplies. Rosneft exposure to these currently sits at around USD15 billion. Another target: long term funding for energy companies. Rosneft raised USD30 billion in two loans in 2012 and 2013, in part to co-fund buyout of TNK-BP which cost Rosneft USD55 billion in 2013.

In reality, while short- and medium-term borrowing costs for two Russian energy companies is likely to rise, the effect in the longer term will be to push more and more trade and finance away from the U.S. dollar and U.S. markets. Plenty of potential substitutes are open: Hong Kong and Singapore being the most obvious ones. London is a less likely target. For example, in June partially state-owned UK Lloyds Bank cancelled a USD2 billion prepayment facility with Rosneft. The loser is, of course, Lloyds as it foregoes substantial revenues, while Rosneft can secure (albeit also at a price) similar funding from any number of larger trading companies it deals with, e.g. Glencore, Vitol or Trafigura.

Bloomberg covers some of the immediate reactions in corporate debt markets here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-17/rosneft-bonds-sink-most-on-record-as-sanctions-shut-debt-markets.html

All in, there is still ca USD60 billion worth of maturing corporate debt that Russian companies need to roll over before the end of 2014. This is a bit of a tight spot for Russian economy going forward, but it can be offset by releasing some of the liquidity accumulated on Russian banks balance sheets in 2013.


There is a bit of a silver lining for Russia from the U.S. sanctions too. To-date, higher oil prices worldwide (primarily driven by the Middle East mess, but now also with a support from the latest Russia sanctions) pushed up Federal Budget surplus to 1.4% of GDP (see latest arithmetic here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/07/1772014-geopolitics-of-russian-gas-oil.html) over January-May 2014. This means Moscow can afford a bit more of a stimulus this year, offsetting any sanctions-related adverse effects on its economy in the short run.

On another positive side, sanctions have triggered renewed interest in Moscow in developing domestic enterprises with a view of creating a buffer for imports risks (http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741073). Imports substitution is a norm for Russian economy during strong devaluations of the ruble. This time around, we can expect a push toward more domestic investment and enterprise development to drive imports substitution growth to compensate not for Forex changes, but for the risks of deeper and broader sanctions in the future.


So I would re-iterate my previously made call: 

  1. Russian economy is in a short- medium-term decline in terms of growth
  2. Growth slowdown is compounded by rising borrowing costs and adverse news flow
  3. With correct course of actions (monetary & fiscal policies and potentially some regulatory changes), Moscow can steer the economy into recovery in 2015
  4. Ukraine crisis abating during the rest of 2014 is likely to support (3) above

All of the above suggest the markets will be oversold by the time Russian equities corrections hit 8-10% mark, assuming, of course, no further escalation in Ukraine (both with and without Russian influence, Ukraine's internal problems have now been firmly pushed by the EU into Russian domain).

There has been no cardinal change in the Western strategy with respect to Ukraine (support at any cost of Poroshenko push East) and with respect to Russia (blame at any opportunity for anything happening in Ukraine). The latest sanctions are simply a replay of the previous ones, which means that the U.S. is relatively satisfied with the progress in Ukraine, while the EU has moved to the back seat, having finalised the association agreement and unwilling to expand on this.


As a side note: there are implications building up for Western companies, relating to the U.S. and EU sanctions:


On political front, here is an interesting report on President Putin approval ratings: http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/740817. I have not seen the original study cited in the report, yet.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

16/7/2014: Gross FDI stocks per destination: BRICS


Natixis research published this handy chart summarising stocks of FDI by origin for BRICS countries:

H/T to @FGoria

Note: this is in absolute levels and aggregated over different time horizons, also note that figures date to 2012, while 2013 was a major year for reduced investment activities in the Emerging Markets and saw the beginnings of the onset of capital outflows from Russia. So lots of caveats on the above data.

16/7/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, July 2014


In an earlier post I covered EMEA results from the BlackRock Investment Institute latest Economic Cycle Survey. Here, a quick snapshot of results for North America and Western Europe.

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 81% of 97 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, compared to net 67% figure in last month’s report."

"The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

"Eurozone is described to be in an expansionary phase of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters. Within the bloc, most respondents described Greece and France to be in a recessionary state, with the even split between contraction or recession for Belgium. Over the next 6 months, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Greece and France. Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."


"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen or stay the same with the exception of Finland which is expected to stay the same."


See June data for comparatives here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/06/1462014-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html - very interesting changes in the first chart above can be traced.

Ireland top question analysis:



Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

16/7/2014: What Exactly does JobBridge Public Sector Record Tells Us?


We are all familiar with the JobBridge scheme run by the Irish State:

  • Young people are 'incentivised' into 'apprenticeships' where they are paid social benefits plus EUR50/week by the State to work on 'enhancing their skills'. 
  • In many cases (majority?) there are no real skills training components to the scheme and instead people are used as cheap labour.
  • In theory, upon completion of the scheme they are prioritised into hiring, since (in theory again) they have acquired new skills (of importance to their employer) and have established a proven track record of work.
So there can be two reasons why a JobBridge participation may result in not employing the intern:
  1. Intern proves herself/himself to be unsuited for the job (bad skills or bad aptitude etc); or
  2. JobBridge internship was set up not to lead to employment (in other words, from the start it was used as a vehicle for obtaining cheap temporary help).
Now, take this fact
"The Department of Social Protection has confirmed that 261 interns have worked at departments since the back-to-work scheme began, of whom 233 finished their internships. None were offered permanent jobs because there is a moratorium on recruitment in the public sector, which only allows staff to be hired in exceptional circumstances." 

So, let's ask: 
  • Was the reason that all 233 interns were not good enough for the job (remember, the article cites some instances where hiring was done, for the positions interns held, but not of interns themselves)? How can this be true if we have 'the best educated workforce in the world'? And if JobBridge is a 'competitive hiring scheme' where there is pre-screening of the candidates for suitability going on? or
  • May be JobBridge was set up - in the case of these 233 internships - to extract cheap labour? Surely the Government would not do such a dubious (ethically) thing as deceive young unemployed into a promise of a reasonable chance of gaining a job at the end, while knowing that "there is a moratorium on recruitment in the public sector, which only allows staff to be hired in exceptional circumstances"? Surely not!
So which one is true, then (because there is no other, 'third' truth possible)? Our education system produces bad crops of candidates unsuited for employment in our excellence-focused public sector? Or our State Training Programmes are run with ex ante expectation of not hiring people completing them?

17/7/2014: Geopolitics of Russian Gas & Oil: BRICS, US, EU and more


Let's put together three areas on the geopolitical and economic map:
- Ukraine
- Latin America
- Central Asia

What do we have?

A conflict theatre that pitches against each other: Russia, Europe, China and the US. This conflict is drawn across both geopolitical and economic spheres and is, largely, fought via PR and finance. It is, however, a conflict that continues to shift the global balance of power East and South, away from its traditional focus on the West and North.

Let's take a look at all three theatres of the conflict. Keep in mind that in 2013, Russian total energy output grew by 1.5% y/y to rise to 15% of the global output. This represents the largest combined oil & gas output in the world. In natural gas, Russia supplies 22% of the world total. But… and there is a proverbial 'but'… US gas output is growing and US exports of LNG are growing too.


Ukraine: Europe's Push Point

Ukraine is a clear battlefield relating to the energy supply security for EU and gas (less so oil) exports for Russia. We have been here before: most recently in 2006 and 2009, but back then Ukraine was much more independent of the EU and thus Russian-Ukrainian gas price conflict at the time did threaten to disrupt supplies of gas to Europe. This time around, Ukraine has no teeth and Russia needs gas flows, so no one West of the Uzhgorod is losing much of sleep. This sense of security is reinforced by the fact that Moscow needs sales, as Russian economy is running in the red, as opposed to 2006. 2009 was, of course, different in this sense. Another footnote to this is that in the medium term, Europe has plentiful stored reserves of gas: some 65% of its gas storage capacity into early summer is full. This is a record high, allowing EU to do some sabre-rattling vis-a-vis Russia.

In addition, EU currently holds the trump cards when it comes to completion of the South Stream pipeline. This point is very significant. South Stream can provide meaningful diversification for transit of gas into Southern European markets, currently being serviced via Ukraine. South Stream capacity is set at 63 billion cubic meters (bcm) per annum, in excess of 55 bcm capacity of Nord Stream 1 & 2 which is up and running. There are problems with capacity utilisation on Nord Stream which are down to EU regulations. The same is threatening the South Stream plans (although the EU has exempted from the said regulations the Turkish pipeline, while it is unwilling to grant an exemption to Russians).


Source: Expert.ru

EU gas imports from Russia currently run at around 1/3 of total european demand, and cost ca USD53 billion per annum. Total volume of gas sales to EU from Russia was 138 bcm in 2013 at an average price of USD387 per thousand cubic meters (mcm) or USD10.50 per million British thermal units (therm). Currently, around 15% of Russia's Federal budget comes from gas exports and Europe is by far the largest market for Russian gas. This underpins medium-term Russian dependency on Europe. But it also underpins medium-term dependency of Europe on Russia: replacing Russian gas in any meaningful quantities will be costly. According to Bloomberg report (here) from earlier this year, "Benchmark U.K. prices would need to rise 127 percent to attract liquefied natural gas if Europe had to replace all its Russian fuel for two summer months". That is only for summer months. Furthermore, "The EU would need to pay as much as 50 percent more to replace that with a combination of LNG, Norwegian gas and coal, according to Bruegel, a research group in Brussels."


Source: Bank of Finland, 2014.

So with power to block South Stream (primarily by pressuring EU member states through which it will pass), the EU holds some serious tramp cards against Russia. These states are: Bulgaria (which was the first signatory to South Stream construction project back in January 2008, just 5 months after South Stream MoU was signed between Eni and Gazprom; Hungary (which signed an inter-governmental agreement on South Stream at the end of February 2008), Slovenia (in South Stream partnership since November 2009) and Croatia (since March 2010). Interestingly, Austria signed a legally binding agreement to build South Stream section (50km) via its territory on June 30th (Russian version here). The EU Commission has engaged in very heavy-handed 'diplomacy' bordering on bullying when it comes to those countries (namely Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria and Slovenia) which have been at the forefront of progressing the South Stream project. But their position is reinforced by both necessity and expedience. Neither the South Stream countries, nor Germany and Italy want to see continued EU dependence on Ukraine as transit route. Despite all the Ukrainian claims to the contrary, this transit has been less than reliable both due to Russian position vis-a-vis Ukraine and Ukraine's position vis-a-vis Russia. On expedience side, transit fees for Russian gas are lucrative to many Balkan countries and South Stream involves partnership with Italian Eni and French EDF - both of which have massive political and economic clout.

Still, Ukraine is clearly attempting to drive a wedge between EU and Russia when it comes to gas transit. Kyev has offered to construct own pipelines to transport Russian gas, in a JV with European countries (who, presumably, will fund this programme). See a report on this idea here. And Russia considered (albeit did not follow through with it) responding in-kind: South Stream economics would significantly improve if it were to go sea-route from Crimean land mass. However, to-date Russia has not indicated officially it is interested in this re-routing).

Russia has another, albeit more limited alternative. In April 2013, Gazprom was instructed to restart the Yamal-Europe-2 gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine, via Belarusian border to Poland and Slovakia. This was scheduled to be completed by 2019, but we can expect some acceleration in the project later this year. This will add only 15 bcm to Yamal-Europe-1 pipe that currently has capacity of 33 bcm. Beefing shipments via Belarus in the future is an alternative. It involves added costs and uncertainty for Russia too. On costs side, Belarus is heavily dependent on Russian energy subsidies and this dependency can be amplified if it serves as a more important gas transit conduit. Russia, weary of its Ukrainian experience - the never ending double-play by transit countries of EU against Russia in gas politics - is not too keen on switching Ukrainian routes to Belorussian. And on risks side, there is Poland with staunchly Russo-sceptic politics and insistence on ownership of transit infrastructure that potentially makes Russian gas hostage to Warsaw.


Source: American Enterprise Institute, 2013

On to Central Asia

All of which means that Russia is looking for diversification away from the European markets for its gas. Earlier this year, China provided a convenient outlet. China accounts for 22.4% of world's energy consumption and it signed a Chinese-Russian 30 year, USD400 billion (plus options) gas deal this May (I covered the deal here). China is also engaged in Bazhenov super-field exploration development (see my earlier note on this here). Both are mega-deals, beyond any doubt. But China will be buying (in first stages) only 38 bcm of gas from Russia.

The reason for this is that China has been also gradually diversifying its sources of supply. This year, China will purchase over 45% of its imports of natural gas directly from Central Asia, according to BP. Turkmenistan ships around 25 bcm of gas to China, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan ship 2.9 bcm and 0.1 bcm. The latter has capacity to increase these shipments by 50 fold by 2015-2016. Turkmenistan holds a 65 bcm supply deal (by 2020) with China. And China is completing two pipelines linking it to Central Asia this year (see here). Combined Central Asian pipeline capacity by 2015 will be running at 55 bcm - same as South Stream. And in December, China will launch construction of line D which is expected to be in full operation by 2020.

On the surface, this looks like China is aggressively shifting toward increasing its share of imports from Central Asia, but even with line D fully running, the target is for Central Asia to ship about 40% of China's overall imports demand for natural gas - a small decline on current share of Chinese imports. Still, China's aggressive move into Central Asia puts a bit of a chill into Russia's regional power base there. And it happened over the last 7-8 years, just at the time as Russia has been focusing increasing attention on its European border. In fact, Russian global position can be described as being under double-pressure: in the West by the EU and Nato and in the East by China - all actively moving into Russian 'near-abroad' and both actively pushing Russia into defensive position with respect to its traditional or historical economic and political allies.

This is best exemplified by Turkmenistan which used to depend almost entirely on Russian gas infrastructure and sales capacity to export its gas. The country has the sixth largest proven natural gas reserves in the world (at 7.5 trillion cubic meters) and is the second largest dry natural gas producer in Eurasia. Turkmenistan is continuously increasing its proven reserves: between 2009 and 2011 these rose 2.8 times. Since 2006, the Government has focused on diversifying its exports outside the markets supplied by Russian infrastructure. Turkmenistan exported some 42.48 bcm of natural gas in 2012, of which 52% went to China, 24% to Russia and 22% to Iran.

Crucially, from China's point of view, Beijing owns the Turkmen infrastructure: it has effectively full ownership of the pipelines and it built the USD600 million gas processing facility at the Bagtyyarlyk gas field (plant capacity is 8.7 bcm per annum). China also built the first plant at the field back in December 2009 and Chinese investment in the field runs around USD4 billion and rising. In June, the Government launched construction of another processing plant at the super-giant Galkynysh field (world's second largest gas field). Turkmenistan is also heavily pushing for a Trans-Caspian pipeline with a link to Trans-Anatolian pipe which would give it access to European markets. The EU has indicated already that the pipeline will be exempt from the European regulations relating to the Third Energy package, the same regulations that are effectively cutting Russia's Nord Stream capacity by a half and are threatening the derailment of the South Stream.

Russia's response to the Central Asian challenge is to push for more business on its Western and Eastern flanks. Azerbaijan is currently in negotiations with Moscow to join the Eurasian Economic Union. Based on economic analysis (see here) the EEU offers significant trade and trade diversification opportunities for Azerbaijan, but it will also harmonise energy policy, reducing Azerbaijan's clout in terms of accessing the EU markets. The major sticking point, however, is Azerbaijan's ongoing 'cold' war with Armenia in which Russia backs Yerevan and Turkey backs Baku. However, there are rumours that Russia is trying to bypass this issue by negotiating simultaneous accession of Armenia and Azerbaijan into EEU. Although these are just rumours. Officially, Azerbaijan was not (yet) invited to join. For now, Azerbaijan is playing both sides of the Russia-West divide but how long this game can go on is a huge question. The country is pivotal for transit routes for Trans-Caspian gas to Europe and it is a major player in Central Asian developing links to Turkey. Europe is keen on incentivising (or de facto geopolitically bribing) Azerbaijan to shift toward its orbit and Turkey is keen to play the leadership role in this game. Georgia - the dealing of the West in the region - is also keen on drawing Azerbaijan into Western orbit, as it hopes to act as a bridge between oil and gas rich Caspian and cash rich Europe via the Black Sea routes.

In recent months, EU and US both stressed the importance of Azerbaijan to energy security in Europe. In April, US Secretary of State, John Kerry, declared Azerbaijan to be "the future of European energy" despite the obvious fact that even if Azerbaijan gains access to European markets via TANAP and TAP pipes linking it (via Turkey) to Austria and Italy the combined pipelines capacity will be around 30 bcm per annum. EU consumes roughly 460 bcm of natural gas annually. The 'future of European energy' is a source of no more than just 6% of the European demand. Not that absurdity of exaggerated claims ever stopped Mr. Kerry from making them in the past. Incidentally, the EU and US both have brushed aside significant security concerns relating to putting two major gas pipes through the region that is ripe with risks of terrorist threats.


Source: http://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/nabucco-aus100~magnifier_pos-1.html

From Central Asia to Broader Asia

So Russia is forced into a defensive position in Central Asia, just as it is being forced into a defensive position o its Western borders. Russian response to-date has been two-pronged:

  1. Engage China into broader cooperative inter-links via BRICS; and
  2. Find new geopolitically strategic markets.


In terms of new geopolitically and economically lucrative markets, Russia has been looking both at the BRICS and elsewhere.

On the latter front, recent move (April 2014) to cancel 90% of the Soviet-era North Korean debt and engagement with the country in trying to open transit routes to Korea show Moscow's interest in driving gas and oil exports out to the wealthier Southern Korean markets, currently reliant on excruciatingly expensive LNG shipments (97% of total energy needs of the country are imported). Russia is planning to invest some USD1 billion in North Korea, amongst other things, building a gas pipeline to South Korea.

Beyond this, there is Japan. Per Bloomberg report a group of 33 Japanese lawmakers have backed a 1,350 kilometer USD5.9 billion (estimated cost) pipeline connecting Russia’s Sakhalin Island and Japan’s Ibaraki prefecture. Pipe capacity: 20 bcm or just over half the Chinese deal Russia signed. This pipeline, if completed, would supply up to 17% of Japan’s imports, but more importantly, open up Sakhalin fields access to a huge market. Cost savings for Japan and Korea can be sizeable. Russia-China deal was priced at around USD10.50-11 per therm, as opposed to the LNG priced at USD13.3 at around end of May (down from USD19.7 back in the winter 2014).

And then there is India, the 3rd-largest oil importer in the world after the US and China, with forecasts showing the country becoming world's largest importer by 2020. Worse, with prices sky-high and its economic growth heavily dependent on energy-intensive services sectors, India is now facing an energy crunch.

Russia has been negotiating with India the most expensive pipeline deal in history: a USD30 billion oil pipe linking Russia’s Altai Mountains to the Xinjiang province of China and northern India. Oil is a different equation for Russia (the country exports 70% of oil output against 30% of gas output and Federal revenues are more dependent on oil than on gas.

In 2012, 52% of Federal revenues came from exports of energy carriers, with gas supplying around 1/3rd of this. Still, pressure is rising. Russia's 2014 budget is balanced at around USD115-117 per barrel, which more than 5-times higher than 2006 when its budget balanced at around USD21-22 per barrel. In its revised Budget plan for 2014, based on performance over January-April 2014, Russia expects federal budget revenue of 14.238 trillion rubles (an increase of 668.3 billion rubles compared to the previously published budgetary estimates). This includes additional oil and gas revenue of 1.567 trillion rubles, up 952.1 billion rubles on previous. Moscow expects a federal budget surplus of 278.6 billion rubles in 2014. On the other hand, Russian Government actual revenues rose 10 % y/y in Q1 2014, primarily due to foreign exchange effects of ruble devaluation (dollar up, dollar revenues from exports translate into more ruble revenues). Which means that, assuming the price of Urals-grade crude stays at USD104 per barrel and if ruble/dollar exchange rate stays at around 35.5 rubles to the dollar (ca 10 % devaluation on 2013), then Russian federal budget is likely to show a forecast surplus despite lower economic activity.

Back in October 2013, India and Russia reiterated that they will continue collaborating on developing direct ground links for oil and gas transports. Indications are, the issue was mentioned at the latest BRICS summit. India imports ca 35% of its gas consumption. Interestingly, in this area, Russia can squeeze out Turkmenistan. The proposal for a USD9 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline is currently finding it difficult to raise funding and sign a consortium lead. The project ran pitches in London, Singapore and New York but failed to attract an international major to join. India is now looking to Russia for developing a gas pipeline, similar to the oil pipeline, via China. India is already linked into Russian oil and gas industry. Back in 2011, Indian FDI into Russian energy sector totalled USD6.5 billion, with USD2.8 billion invested in Sakhalin-1 and is seeking a stake in Sakhalin-3. India is also looking to invest some USD1.5 billion in the Russian Yamal peninsula. Yamal holds one-fifth of global natural gas reserves. Last, but not least, India is trying to get off the ground gas liquefaction offshore projects in Russia for shipments to Indian market.

Source: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/10/29/798609/-Building-A-Pipeline-Energy-Politics-In-Afghanistan

Here is a far-reaching possibility: India, Russia and China creating a joint/shared infrastructure system that links Russian and Central Asian oil and gas to India and China. The net losers in such a scenario will be the US (due to lower cost of LNG in Asia-Pacific), Australia (major supplier of LNG to Korea and China) and Europe. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is likely to link up with the BRICS-led transport network, although it might require the country to sign up to the EEU.


BRICS: The Flavour of the Month

Which, naturally brings us to BRICS. This week, we had a BRICS summit and Vladimir Putin's visit to Latin America. Both played a central role in shaping the evolving Russian geopolitical strategy. Firstly, the trip and the summit shows that Russia is not a regional power (as President Obama claims), but a global player (as Russia claims). Via twin track approach: BRICS + disenfranchised states provide exactly this platform. Hence we saw Cuban visit and cancelation of 90% of the (completely un-recoverable) Cuban debts. We also saw Argentina talks, which yielded major nuclear power contract: Rosatom will build two new power generation units. There were also talks about development of Argentinian shale gas deposits.

Secondly, BRICS summit is now set to remain neutral on the issue of Ukraine. With BRIC leaders abstaining from criticising Russian position, President Putin achieves two goals:
  1. puts Russia into a major international decision making arena without having to deal with the issue of Ukraine; and 
  2. shows to the West that US and EU cannot automatically count on emerging economies falling into their orbit on geopolitical issues.
Thirdly, Putin's initiative for creating a BRICS-based development bank strengthens the BRICS cooperation and moves it toward a tangible financial and policy commitment. The same goes for a reserve fund.

On geopolitical side of things, Russia, India and China are already facing common security considerations (as well as some growing economic interests) in Afghanistan. The countries have raised a possibility of setting up a trilateral framework of cooperation there and this is also likely to feature in their discussions in Brazil, although don't expect to see it in the official reports. And BRICS are getting more active in the Latin American neighbourhood. BRICS held a meeting with Unasur organisation and leaders of a number of Lat AM countries.

On trade side, President Putin and Brazil president Dilma Rousseff have confirmed their objective of doubling the bilateral trade between the two countries to USD10 billion dollars per annum from current (2013) USD5.56 billion. The original target was set three years ago.

Elsewhere, in June, Russia and Nicaragua confirmed Russian engagement with the Chinese-led plan for Interoceanic Grand Canal. Construction is expected to start by the end of 2014. The IGC will be 286 km long (Panama Canal is 81.5 km), have width of 83 meters and depth of 27.5 meters. This will make it suitable for long-range ships with a deadweight of up to 270,000 tons. The cost of which is estimated at USD30-40 billion.


Source: http://www.qcostarica.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Canal-Nicaragua.jpg


Conclusions:

The last point ties in the BRICS dynamics with Russia's economic push East. China is becoming a major partner in a number of Russia-linked initiatives, including those that are of greater benefit to Beijing than to Moscow (e.g. the IGC). In effect, Russia is gradually building up mutual inter-dependency with China in Latin America, Central Asia and, via the Northern Passage (the sea route to Europe via Russia's Arctic waters) in Europe. This process is in its early stages, but it is a part of the emerging long-term strategy that can lead to significant re-orientation of global politics and, to a lesser extent, economics. Further ahead, beyond the bilateral agreements, Russia, India and China are sitting at the centre of the vast and rapidly growing infrastructure-light markets for energy and transport. Joint co-development of this infrastructure, especially pairing transport of energy with transport of goods and other commodities, suits all regional powers well. This is similar in nature to, but more massive in scale than the ongoing emerging cooperation between China and Russia in Central and Latin America. It does not suit the West.

So Ukraine is a flashing point of the old battlefields. It is still 'hot' but it no longer matters as much as Kiev and Brussels want it to matter. From here on, keep an eye on Latin America, Central Asia and Asia-Pacific for the places where Russian strategy is going to play out next, this time around with BRICS most likely alongside Moscow. The core driver for this change is not Russian 'nationalist revival' or Kremlin's 'aggressive aspirations'. Instead it is the force of the pince-nez squeeze of Western geopolitical pressures on Russia on its Western flank and Chinese demand for natural resources on the Eastern flank that is driving Russia to a reactive, not pro-active strategy. That this strategy is defensive is clear from its reactive and lagged nature. That this strategy is getting now active is clear from the geographic reach it assumed in recent months.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

15/7/2014: Construction Sector PMI: Q2 2014


June PMI for Construction industry were out this week. Good discussion of some monthly data on this topic here.

Here are quarterly averages through Q2 2014:

  • Total Activity index is up 3.6 points to 61.2 in Q2 2014 compared to Q1 2014. The index is up significantly - by +18.8 points - on Q2 2013.
  • On average we have fourth consecutive quarter of growth in the sector activity and in three of these quarters, the index was statistically significantly above 50.0 expansion mark.
  • Based on these figures we are in a confirmed recovery in the sector and in Q2 2014 this accelerated substantially. Which is good news.
  • Housing Activity sub-index rose to 61.9 - marking rapid growth - and is now up 2.8 points on Q1 2014 and 17.1 points on Q2 2014. Again, we are into fourth consecutive quarter of above 50 readings and, as above, this is the third consecutive quarter of statistically significant readings above 50.0.
  • Commercial Activity sub-index rose to 61.5, up 2.8 points on Q1 2014 and 20 points on Q2 2013. Same dynamics over the last four quarters as in the case of the Total Activity index and Housing Activity sub-index.
  • Civil Engineering index is a drag on overall growth picture, averaging 44.9 over the Q2 2014, up 4.2 points on Q1 2014 and up 12.1 points on Q2 2013, but still below the 50.0 line. This is expected, as the Government continues to destroy public investment at an alarming rate.
Chart to illustrate:


15/7/2014: Mispriced Investment and Risk: Ireland & Euro Area


Whenever Irish Government and media talk about the fabled hordes of investors wondering around Ireland looking for anything to put their money into, all this talk makes me wonder: why are the actual numbers coming out of capital formation side of the National Accounts showing only weak, leafless 'improvements'? Even with reclassifications of R&D costs as 'investment', and with the FDI (some of which does count as 'domestic') and retained profits (some of which, if reinvested, also count as 'domestic').

Well, I bet the IMF should be wondering too. Because in its latest Euro Area analytical paper, the Fund shows that Irish Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Q1 2014 was the second lowest (relative to 2007 levels) after that of another 'recovering' miracle: Greece.


Meanwhile, Ireland is benefiting from low interest rates (compared to its 'peripheral' counterparts) despite having the largest net debt pile of all euro area economies (although Irish rates are rising):


Run by me again that point where, in theory, higher risks are priced via higher cost of capital?


Or that point where equity valuations should be reflective of debt exposures?