Showing posts with label state training programmes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label state training programmes. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

5/8/15: Irish monthly Unemployment Rate remains stuck at 9.7%


CSO data on estimated unemployment (that used to be released with Live Register) shows estimated unemployment steady at 9.7% in July, for the third month in a row.


  • Officially, there were 208,900 unemployed 15-74 year olds in Ireland in July 2015, up 300 on June 2015. 3mo average through July is at 208,833 against 3mo average through April 2015 at 211,833, an improvement of 3,000 on 3mo average basis. Compared to July 2011, there were 107,500 fewer officially unemployed in Ireland. Compared to July 2014, number of unemployed in Ireland fell 32,400.
  • However, factoring in those participating in State-established Activation Programmes, number of unemployed in Ireland stood at 289,788 (estimated using lagged data for Activation Programmes participation) in July, down 77,658 on July 2011 and down 16,128 on July 2014.
  • There were 37,600 younger unemployed in Ireland in July 2015 (15-24 year olds), up 700 on June 2015 and down 8,200 on July 2014. The number of younger unemployed declined 28,500 compared to July 2011. 3mo average number of younger unemployed through July 2015 was 37,233 against 40,300 average for the 3 months through April 2015. 

  • Estimated unemployment rate for 15-74 year olds stood at 9.7% in July, unchanged on May and June, down on 9.8% in March and April. Unemployment rate is down 5 percentage points on July 2011 and 1.5 percentage points on July 2014. Last 4 months marked the slowest sequence of declines in unemployment rate since March 2014.
  • Estimated unemployment rate for younger workers was 20.2% in July 2015 compared to 19.9% in June 2015. The unemployment rate declined 8.4 percentage points compared to July 2011 and was down 3.4 percentage points on July 2014.

The key point is the slowdown in the unemployment rate reductions. Over 2012, average monthly rate of reduction in unemployment was 0.083%,  this rose to 0.153% average over 2013 and 0.167% over 2014. So far, over 7 months of 2015 the average monthly rate of unemployment rate decline was 0.071%.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

25/2/15: QNHS Q4 2014: Broader Measures of Irish Unemployment


In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/25215-qnhs-q4-2014-labour-force.html) I covered the QNHS results for Q4 2014 from the point of Labour Force Participation Rate (poor news showing decline in the already historically low participation) and Unemployment Rate (goods news with unemployment - absent seasonal adjustment falling to 9.9% and the rate of decline in unemployment on quarterly basis accelerating).

Here, let's consider actual size of the labour force and the broader measures of unemployment, including numbers on state training programmes (e.g. JobBridge) and factoring in estimates of inward and outward migration.

Few definitions are provided in the note below the post, so feel free to consult these.

Now, onto numbers.

Total size of Irish labour force at Q4 2014 stood at 2,152,500 down from 2,172,400 in Q3 2014 and down 10,600 on Q4 2013. This is not good. Compared to peak, current Labour Force is down 147,600 and compared to crisis period trough it is up 15,000. Over the last 12 months, irish labour force average levels were down 117,100 on pre-crisis average. All indicators point to a decline in labour force, consistent with the weak labour force participation rate reported in the previous post. All of this suggests that some share of improvements in unemployment performance is down to people dropping out of the labour force rather than the unemployed finding jobs.



As chart above highlights, remarkably, there has been basically no change in labour force numbers from H2 2010 through Q4 2014, something that is not consistent with our natural demographics, but is consistent with the story of outward emigration and dropping-out from the labour force by working age adults.

Now onto more pleasant news. All broader measures of unemployment have registered declines in Q4 2014 both y/y and q/q:

PLS1 indicator - basically a measure of unemployment fell 2.0 percentage points y/y in Q4 2014 to 10.5%, marking an acceleration in the rate of decline from 1.9% drop in Q3 2014.

PLS3 indicator, capturing those employed, unemployed, discouraged, plus all those not seeking a job for reasons other than being in Education & Training - has fallen from 15.1% in Q3 2014 to 13.3% - a drop of 2.7 percentage points y/y accelerated from 2.4 percentage points decline back in Q3 2014.

PLS4 - the broadest officially reported measure of unemployment that includes PLS3, and also underemployed - has fallen to 18.5 in Q4 2014, marking the first reading below 20% since Q1 2009. The measure is down 3.8 percentage points y/y and this marks a major acceleration in decline compared to 2.9 percentage points drop in Q3 2014.

Adding State Training Programmes participants to PLS$ to produce PLS4+STP puts the broader unemployment measure to 22.34%. This is the lowest reading since Q4 2009 and also marks acceleration in decline exactly matching that for PLS4.

Accounting (and this is rough estimation, so be warned) for net outward emigration, however, PLS4+STP measure of broad unemployment rises to 29.8% in Q4 2014. This marks a decline of 2.8 percentage points y/y and acceleration of decline from 2.0 percentage points drop in Q3 2014. However, the rates of decline in both Q3 and Q4 were shallower than for other measures, save PLS 1.



To summarise, labour force levels are worrying and static at and around crisis trough. Broader measures of unemployment show significant improvements, but the levels of unemployment, especially adjusted for state training programmes and potential adverse effects of net emigration are still high and more worrying than the headline unemployment measures suggest. While we do not know exactly, indications are - the data is consistent with at least some declines in unemployment officially recorded by the CSO coming not from jobs gains, but from emigration, state training programmes and exits from the labour force.

For example, compered to H1 2011, there were 23,373 more individuals that were participating in state training programmes who are not counted as unemployed. Furthermore, estimated net 94,800 individuals of working are have left Ireland between end of Q1 2011 through end of Q1 2014. They too are no longer counted in the labour force or in employment/unemployment statistics.


Note:


  • PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers.
  • PLS2 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force
  • PLS3 indicator is PLS2 plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.
  • PLS4 indicator is PLS3 plus part-time underemployed persons as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.
  • PLS4+STP is the indicator combining PLS4 above and State Training Programmes Participants but excluding those of working age who emigrated (net of those who immigrated). 
  • PLS4+STP+migration numbers reported below are reflective of PLS4+STP measure and add estimates of net emigration from Ireland based on latest available data extrapolated linearly over the year from May 2014 and adjusted for working age and labour force participation rate in the economy.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

27/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: State Training & Supports vs Jobs Creation


Key summary of the previous posts covering QNHS for Q3 2014 is provided at the bottoms of the post (they are now getting longer than the posts, so I should probably end this analysis).

For the last bit, lets take a look at the unemployed numbers inclusive of the State Training Schemes (JobBridge et al) and State-Supported Employment (Live Register payments).

Official unemployment figures stood at 294,800 in Q3 2014, down 9.76% y/y (a reduction of 31,900). Official unemployment was down 22.91% on crisis peak levels (-87,600) and it was down 19.39% (-70,900) on Q1 2011 levels.

Factoring in State Training and Supports Schemes Participants, number of unemployed and those reliant on state supports for their employment stood at 381,700 in Q3 2014, down 7.74% y/y (-32,040). Compared to peak levels, this measure was down 18.08% or 84,230 and compared to Q1 2011 it was down 14.67% or 65,640.



Interestingly, there have also been significant changes in terms of self-employed.

Numbers of self-employed with paid employees rose 4.72% y/y in Q3 2014 (+4,000), while their counts were down 3.59% (-3,300) compared to Q1 2011. Numbers of self-employed with no paid employees rose 1.64% y/y (+3,700) and was up 13.15% (+26,600) compared to Q1 2011.

Now, as to the Government's claims of massive jobs creation during the Government tenure, total unemployment (ex state training schemes and programmes) fell 65,640 in Q3 2014 since Q1 2011, but 23,300 of this fall was accounted for by higher numbers in self-employment absent employees. Over 3.5 years, Government stewardship of the economy was, therefore, associated with employment-linked unemployment reduction of roughly 12,100 per annum.

(Do note, that any claim that the Government 'creates' jobs is a bit dodgy, and even more dodgy would be a claim that Government 'creates' self-employment, as the current Government has clearly shown by the record of its own policies, e.g. massive tax hikes and failure to equivalise access to supports, that it has zero interest in supporting self-employed in their business endeavours).



Summary of previous posts:
1) Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older)
2) Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average.
3) Ireland's participation rate remains below historical average and despite a slight improvement in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014, labour force participation rate remains lower than for the same period in 2013.
4) Total population over 15 years of age increased by 0.08% y/y and population at work was up 1.7% y/y (+31,000), marking a slowdown in the rate of growth from 2.17% y/y in Q2 2014 (+39,100). Since Q1 2011 some 58,500 more people are at work, although this reflects seasonal variations. Numbers of those retired from employment rose to 416,700 - up 2.76% (+11,200) y/y and up 68,400 or +19.64% since Q1 2011. Q3 2014 dependency ratio was 40.34 individuals at work to 59.66 individuals not working for various reasons and remains higher than historical average.
5) Both full-time employment and total employment accelerated in Q3 2014 compared to Q4 2013-Q1 2014 dynamics, with most of the new jobs creation taking place in the category of full-time employment. This is good news. Numbers of underemployed individuals fell. Which is another good news. However, as the proportion of total employment, full-time employment remains at the low levels. 

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

2/7/2014: Live Register by Nationality: June 2014 and Q2 2014


In the previous two posts (linked here) I covered top level data on Live Register for June 2014, and the Government "Score Card' comparatives between Q2 2014 and Q1 2011 when the current Coalition came to power. This post covers some details relating to foreign nationals on Live Register.

As of June 2014, there were

  • 398,813 people officially on the Live Register (in other words, excluding those who received Live Register supports but were enrolled into State Training Programmes). This marked a decline of 8.39% y/y
  • Of the above, 331,463 were Irish Nationals, representing 83.1% of total Live Register counts. Year on year, June 2014 numbers of Irish Nationals on LR is down 8.12% which is less than overall decline in the LR. A year ago, Irish Nationals represented 82.9% of total LR counts. So proportionally, Irish Nationals are now slightly more prevalent on LR than a year ago.
  • In June 2014, there were 67,350 non-Irish Nationals on the LR, representing 16.9% of the total LR counts. This represents a decline of 9.73% y/y. A year ago in June 2013, non-Irish Nationals represented 17.1% of the LR.
  • 15,034 UK nationals were on LR in Ireland in June 2014, representing a y/y decline of 10.0%, the second sharpest drop of all nationalities groups.
  • There were 3,751 EU15 (ex-Ireland & UK) nationals on the LR in June 2014, virtually unchanged (up on 3,750) on June 2013.
  • There were 36,772 Accession States (EU-12) nationals on the LR in June, representing a decline of 9.5% y/y. In June 2014, nationals of the Accession States accounted for 9.2% of the total LR counts, down from 9.3% in June 2013. In other words, proportionally, the numbers of Accession States nationals on LR have dropped more significantly than the decline in LR itself. This category posted the third steepest decline in LR numbers.
  • Non-EU nationals listed on LR amounted to 11,793 as of June 2014, a decline of 12.8% on June 2013. Proportionally, they accounted for just under 3% of the LR total counts in June 2014, down slightly on just over 3.1% in June 2013. This category posted the overall steepest rate of decline in LR numbers y/y.
Charts to illustrate:



A table below summarises changes in quarterly averages terms for Q2 2014:


This largely confirms the same observations made about June 2014 figures.

2/7/2014: Live Register: Changes on Q1 2011 & Government 'Score Card'


In the previous post I covered Live Register (top numbers) for June. Here, as promised, a sort of 'Score Card' for the Government tenure period - looking at the LR performance over the period from Q1 2011 through Q2 2014. This is summarised in the table below:


Note one simple exercise, taking the rate of improvement in figures over either 3 years and a quarter (entire tenure of the Government) or over the last 12 months (quarterly averages basis), we can look at the number of years we are still away from getting the LR and its underlying components to some sort of a 'norm' (selected as the average of 2007-2008 period). Two things are evident from this exercise:

  1. The task ahead is still awfully large and in no case are we out of the storm until around 2019-2020; and
  2. The task is being made easier in recent months as things have been improving more rapidly
This confirms my earlier analysis that the current crisis does not appear to be as easily solvable as the one of the 1980s (you can see some of this here).

It would not be fair to criticise this Government for the problem of unemployment. And it would be wrong not to recognise the fact that the numbers are improving and the rate of improvement has accelerated in the last 18 months. Still, noting the caveats to the improvements that I cited in the earlier post on this subject, and considering the effect of State Training Programmes on LR (the cornerstone of Government labour market policies endorsed fully by the Troika) there is more of this road yet to travel than what has been marked over the last 3 years.

2/7/2014: Live Register: June 2014


Live Register figures for June 2014 are out today, so here are some updates.

Seasonally un-adjusted LR stood at 398,813 in June 2014, which is down 8.39% y/y down 36,544. In May 2014 the LR was down 7.81% y/y so June marks an improvement in the rate of Live Register declines.

Factoring in participants in State Training Programmes, total number of individuals in receipt of Live Register supports in June 2014 was 473,700 which is 5.68% lower (28,521) than in June 2013. The rate of decline in total Live Register Recipients numbers moderated in June, since in May 2014 it fell 6.98% y/y.

Chart to illustrate:


June marked the slowest rate of LR declines (when factoring in State Training Programmes participants) since February 2014. However, since December 2013, the annual rates of decline in LR+STP numbers have run above 5%, every month, against average 2.57% declines in January-November 2013.

On the other hand, official LR declines hit record in June, dropping 8.39% y/y, the steepest rate of annual decline since the crisis began.

All of the above are positives, but subject to two caveats:

  1. We do not know how much of the LR reduction is down to emigration
  2. We do not know how much of it is down to exits from the labour force.
Data for labour force itself comes with a quarterly lag, so all we have to go by currently is Q1 2014 figure, when the labour force rose to 2,146,300 compared to 2,137,500 in Q1 2013 - an increase y/y of 8,800. Rising net labour force could have come from younger workers coming into the LF for the first time (some of them are not finding jobs, some are) and it can mean that older workers who exited the LF are coming back. We do not know net drivers for the 8,800 increase, so we cannot speculate as to what effect on LR this has had.

What we do, however, know (with 1 quarter lag, again) is that LR recipients as share of labour force is still trending above 2008-present average and although it is coming down, the proportion remains stuck above 20%. 

2008-present average for LR+STP as % of labour force is 21.1%, current June 2014 reading is at 22.1% (assuming labour force for Q1 2014), and March 2014 reading was 22.0% - very close to June (March figure is based on Q1 2014 data, so it is more likely to be correct). In June 2013 this proportion was 23.1% and in March 2013 it was 23.9%, which means we have some improvement. However, we are still far from 1998-2007 average of 9.5%.



So the good news is: LR is down. Better news is: much of the decrease is not due to State Training Programmes. Bad news: there is still a lot of road left to travel before we get anywhere near normal levels of LR and the progress is not rapid.

Government 2011-present scorecard on LR - in the next post.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

15/5/2014: Jobs & Employment: Lot Done, More to Do, Still


The is an unedited version of my Sunday Times article from April 27.



As cooperative organisations go, Paris-based OECD is one of the more effective ones. Its regular assessments of member states economic policies and performance drill into various sectors and often flash light into the darker corners of policy formation and implementation that are often untouched by the likes of the IMF, the central banks and the EU Commission.

Good example is the OECD’s third annual review of Ireland's Action Plan for Jobs, published this week.

The review starts by highlighting the positive achievements to-date set against the Action Plan targets and the realities of the unemployment crisis we face.

After hitting the bottom of the Great Recession, Irish labour markets have recorded a rebound in 2013. As the result of the robust jobs creation in the economy, Irish employment levels rose by around 60,000 in 12 months through Q4 2013. New jobs additions were broadly based across various sectors and predominantly concentrated in full-time employment segment. All of which is the good news.

Being a diplomatic, politically correct body, the OECD does not question the aggregate numbers of new jobs recorded. As this column noted on numerous occasions before, the 60,000 figure includes a large number of jobs in agriculture – a number that generates more questions than answers. But from the point of view of the OECD and indeed the Irish Governments 2012 Action Plan for Jobs, quality is a distant goal, while quantity is the primary objective. By this metric, as OECD notes, Ireland is now well on track to deliver on the interim target of 100,000 new jobs by 2016.

Still, accolades aside, Irish non-agricultural employment is lingering at 39 percent of total population – implying a dependency ratio that is comparable with that seen in the late 1990s. Official unemployment counts are around 253,000 and factoring in those in State training programmes the number rises to over 330,000. 16 percent of our total Potential Labour Force is currently not in employment. A things get even scarier when we add all people searching for jobs, underemployed, unemployed that have been discouraged from looking for work, those in State training programmes and the net emigration of working age adults. By this metric, the broadest joblessness rate in the country stands at around 32 percent.

Unlike the Government, faced with the above numbers, the OECD recognises that the Action Plan target of 100,000 new jobs by 2016 is a reflection of our public culture of low aspirations. "While Irish policymakers can take some satisfaction in the economy’s return to growth and recent robust job growth, significant challenges lie ahead if the country is to rapidly bring down the unemployment rate," said report authors. Anodyne a statement for you and me this screams a serious warning to the Government in OECD’s language.

There are legitimate concerns and uncertainties about the pace of the labour market recovery. At peak of employment in Q3 2007, there were 2.17 million people working in our economy. At the bottom of the Great Recession, in Q1 2012 that number fell to 1.825 million. In Q4 2013 the number employed was 1.91 million or 76,000 above the trough, but almost 260,000 below the peak. Meanwhile, Irish working age population has grown by some 93,700 despite large net outflows due to emigration. In other words, jobs creation to date has not been enough to fully compensate for demographic changes in working age population.

Beyond headline unemployment numbers, Ireland is facing a huge crisis of long-term joblessness, the crisis that was recently covered in depth by this column. With it, there is a significant risk that improved jobs creation in the future is not going to provide employment for those out of work for more than a year.

While reversing emigration and accommodating for growing population will require much higher rate of new employment growth than we currently deliver, the Government’s Medium Term Economic Strategy published this year is aiming to bring employment levels to 2.1 million in by 2020. This means thirteen years after the on-set of the crisis our employment is expected to still fall short of the pre-crisis peak.


Which begs a question: who will be the unemployed of tomorrow?

OECD is rather serious on this subject. "Tackling unemployment and ensuring that high cyclical unemployment does not become structural and persistent are important challenges. A relentless focus on activating those most vulnerable to alienation from the labour market will be even more important than aggregate job creation targets in this regard."

In other words, according to the OECD, long-term unemployed, youth out of jobs and out of education, as well as those with low skills and of advanced working age are at a risk of becoming structurally (re: permanently) unemployed, even if the Government targets under all existent strategies are met.

Much of this stems from the sectoral breakdown of jobs being created and types of jobs that are growing in demand in modern workplace.

For example, the OECD praises the Government for focusing Action Plan "on private sector-led, export-oriented job creation by getting framework conditions right and continually upgrading the business environment". But export-led growth is not going to do much for our high levels of long-term unemployment. Jobs creation in exporting sectors is directly linked to modern skills sets and high quality of human capital. Long-term unemployment is linked to lower skills and/or past skills in specific sectors, such as construction. To make a dent in an army of long-term jobless we need domestic growth. To make this growth sustainable, we need productivity enhancements in domestic sectors and SMEs that require employment of higher skills in these sectors. There is a basic contradiction inherent in these two drivers of recovery: skills in supply within the pool of long-term unemployed are not matched to skills in demand within the modernising economy.

Something has to be done to address this dichotomy.

Under various policy reforms enacted during the crisis, Ireland witnessed introduction of significant changes to the benefits system, employment programmes, as well as reduced levels and duration of unemployment insurance cover. In addition, the Government used restructuring of training programmes to introduce a new concept of one-stop support centres, Intreo, which are being rolled out across the country. All of this is in line with previous OECD and Troika recommendations and much of it is needed.

But, as OECD notes, six years into the crisis, more remains to be done.

The OECD identifies Government's flagship activation programme, JobBridge as "large and expensive" and insufficiently targeted to help the most disadvantaged groups. In other words, JobBridge has became a synonym for unpaid apprenticeship for recent graduates instead of being a stepping stone from unemployment to a job requiring moderate re-skilling. OECD also highlights the risk of State training programmes effectively delaying job searches by the unemployed or reducing their job search efforts.

Beyond the above, the OECD points to the risk that the longer-term and lower-skilled unemployed may fall outside the resources and remit cover of the new agencies - the SOLAS and the Intreo.

With all reforms to-date, the OECD highlights the lack of willingness on behalf of the Government to rationalise some of the labour market programmes, even where there is clear and available evidence of their low effectiveness.

One example is the long-established Community Employment Programme (CEP), which accounts for a full one third of all spending on activation programmes. Data available to the Government strongly shows that CEP is not cost-effective and has a spotted track record in terms of securing the participants return to regular employment. Instead of the CEP, the Irish state should focus resources on developing a modern apprenticeship programme that can replace existent ineffective schemes. This focus on market skills-based training available under the apprenticeship system, supported by the OECD report, is in line with policy suggestions presented in this column in the recent past and with the Entrepreneurship Forum report published last year.


The OECD report also provides a detailed analysis of the institutional reforms that are needed to deliver sustainable jobs creation in Ireland in line with the Government agenda. There is a need to mobilise employers to engage with the Government programmes to develop employment and skills systems that can address future demands in the real economy. Instead of craft-focused and manual professions-oriented training, Ireland needs more MNCs and SMEs-driven skills acquisition and upgrading programmes.

The OECD also stresses the need for stimulating productivity growth by developing more skills-intensive domestic sectors. Unlike the Irish authorities, the OECD is painfully aware that aggregate productivity growth, jobs creation and skills development must be anchored to indigenous sectors and enterprise, including the SMEs, and not be relegated to the domain of the SMEs and exports-oriented producers alone.


In all of this, the report highlights a major bottleneck in the Irish human capital development systems – dire lack of training and up-skilling programmes available to SMEs and early stage companies that are capable of supplying skills that are in actual demand in the markets and that can simultaneously drive forward productivity growth and innovation in Irish enterprises.

Slightly paraphrasing Fianna Fail’s GE2002 posters: in the case of Government delivery on jobs and unemployment, “A lot done. Even more to do.”





Note: PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers.  

PLS3 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training 






Box-out:

Since the early days of the EU, one of the most compelling arguments in support of the common European currency was the alleged need for eliminating the volatility in the exchange rates. It remains the same today. High uncertainty in the currency markets, the argument goes, acts to depress international trade and distorts incentives to transact across borders. Alas, theory aside, the modern history puts into doubt the validity of this argument. During the 1990s, prior to the creation of the euro, Irish current account surpluses averaged 1.9 percent of GDP just as the economy was going through a period of rapid accumulation of capital - a process that tends to put pressure on current account balance. Still, in the decade before the euro introduction, Ireland's external balance ranked fifth in the European Economic Area. During the first decade of the euro, owing to the massive credit bubble, Irish current account balance collapsed to an annual average of -2.3 percent of GDP. Since hitting the bottom of the crisis, our performance rebound saw current account swinging to an average annual surplus of 7 percent. Alas, this reversal of fortunes ranks us only 7th in the EEA. In fact, since 2000 through today, non-euro area economies of Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland have consistently outperformed Ireland in terms of current account surpluses. Cumulatively Swiss economy generated external balances of 135 percent of GDP between 2001 and 2013, Swedish economy 88 percent and Danish economy 51 percent of GDP. Irish cumulated current account balance over that period is a deficit of 9 percent of GDP. Let's put the matters into perspective: between 1990 and 1999 Irish economy generated a total surplus of USD12.5 billion. Since the introduction of the euro, our cumulated current account deficit stands at USD23.5 billion. At current blistering rates of current account surpluses, it will take us another five years to achieve a current account balance across the entire period of 30 years. Meanwhile, deprived of the alleged benefits of currency stabilisation, Denmark accumulated curret account surpluses of USD149 billion between 2001 and the end of 2013, Sweden USD378 billion and Switzerland USD645 billion. The euro might be a good idea for a political union or for PR and advertising agencies spinning its alleged benefits to European voters, but it has not been all too kind to our own trade balances.






Wednesday, March 5, 2014

5/3/2014: Broader Measures of Unemployment in Ireland: QNHS Q4 2013


Completing the coverage of Q4 2013 QNHS results for Ireland.



Now, let's take a look at broader measures of unemployment.

Methodology note: CSO reports the following measures of broader unemployment:

  • PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers. This indicator is broadly comparable to the previously published S1 indicator. In the nutshell, PLS1 = unemployed persons plus discouraged workers.
  • PLS2 = PLS1 + Potential Additional Labour Force
  • PLS3 = PLS2 + others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in Education and training.
  • PLS4 = PLS3 + plus underemployed

In addition, I use CSO data from Live Register and emigration to add two more metrics:

  • PLS4+STP: PLS4 + State Training Programmes Participant
  • PLS4+STPE: PLS4 + State Training Programmes Participants + Emigration

So let's take a look first at labour force. The data is not seasonally-adjusted.

In Q4 2013 there were 2,163,000 people in labour force in Ireland, an increase of 19,600 year on year (+0.9%). A small increase, but a welcome one, suggesting that emigration is not offsetting demographic inflows of workers into the labour force. However, the level of labour force is still below Q4 2011 and is down 137,000 on pre-crisis peak. On average over the entire 2013, levels of labour force were 110,600 behind the pre-crisis period average levels.



As chart above shows, the greater challenge for us is the flat-trending labour force over the period of 2011-2013.

Table and chart below summarise changes in the broader measures of unemployment:




The key takeaway from the above charts and the table is shallower declines in the broadest measures of unemployment officially reported (PLS2-PLS4) compared to PLS1 and the adverse impact of 'sticky' State Training Programmes on the measure. It appears that these programmes are not moving workers out of unemployment fast enough.

Keeping in mind that Emigration is imputed only through April 2013 (we do not have official data beyond that), the PLS4+STP+E measure likely underestimates overall changes in broad unemployment.

Just how bad things are on overall unemployment front? With caveats to data and estimation errors, the above shows that in Q4 2013, 31.7% of Irish potential (including emigrants and state training schemes participants) labour force was either unemployed, underemployed, discouraged from seeking employment, not seeking employment for some reason other than being in education, toiling for free at Job Bridge and other fine 'activation' programmes or 'partying' abroad. Happy times...

That number, incidentally, is down from 32.5% in Q4 2012, but is still above 30.9 in Q4 2011.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

9/1/2014: Live Register: December 2013



Live Register for December was published earlier this week. Let's take a look at the recent changes and trends.

Using seasonally-adjusted data:

  • December 2013 LR stood at 402,800, lowest reading since May 2009 and down 6.7% y/y. October 2013 reading was down 6.2% on October 2012, so strong downward trend is clearly present.
  • Good news is that in 2013 the LR declines came alongside increases in labour force participation. In Q3 2013, LR averaged 416,100, down 19,633 y/y, while labour force participation increased 16,300. We don't have data for labour force participation for Q4 2013 year, so that comparative will have to wait.
  • Over Q4 2013, average Live Register numbers fell 2.39% on Q3 2013 average and was down 6.15% year on year. The latter marks acceleration in LR declines : in Q3 2013 LR average was down 4.51% y/y.
  • Overall seasonally-adjusted LR declined 28,800 y/y in December and was down 3,300 m/m.

Under-25 years of age: 

  • Number of LR recipients under 25 years of age stood at 62,400 in December 2013, down 11.6% y/y (-8,200) and down 900 on October 2013.
  • Stripping out some volatility, Q4 2013 average was down 3.46% q/q and 11.1% y/y for those under 25 years of age.

Casual and Part-time Workers: 

  • 81,382 casual and part-time workers were on the Live Register in December 2013, down 7.6% y/y
  • On a quarterly averages basis, Q4 2013 figure was 4.2% lower than Q3 and 6.5% lower than Q4 2013.

Coupled with lower jobs creation for the younger workers and slower growth in part-time employment reported in Q3 2013 QNHS data, the above facts suggests that significant share of overall improvement in the Live Register can be down to exits from the LR that are neither registering as unemployed nor employed. This, of course, would mean they are either dropping off unemployment schemes due to expiration of benefits and/or emigrating. Alas, we have no real data on what happens to those who exit the LR schemes.

However, we do have data on State Training Programmes (STPs) participation - counting individuals who do receive LR financial supports, yet are not counted as being on LR. Do note, we also have a lag in reporting of these numbers with the latest data currently available for November 2013.
  • In November 2013, 85,738 individuals were in STPs - up 2% (+1,677). M/m STPs participants rose 1,100, accounting for almost 1/3 of the 3,500 decline in overall live register in October-November 2013.
  • Combining STP participants and official LR counts, total number of those on unemployment supports in December 2013 stood at 488,538 (using November LR figure) against November count of 491,838.

On average, in Q4 2013, 23% of Irish workforce was in receipt of unemployment assistance, up on 22.2% in Q3 2013 and down on 23.1% in Q2 2013. In Q4 2012 the same proportion was 24.1%.

The good news is that even accounting for those on STPs, Live Register total has fallen back in 2013. In Q4 2013 average total LR+STPs numbers were down ca 4.7% y/y (assuming there is no dramatic change in STPs numbers when these are reported for December).

Some trends next.

First overall LR and LR with training programmes included:


Both are off-peaks (good thing, assuming it is happening not by throwing people into poverty), but while Official Live Register is trending strongly down, once training programmes are included, the downward trend is shallower.

Live Register for under-25 year olds:


Again, good trend - downward and strong - stronger rate of recovery than in the early 1990s. Of course we also have more outflows due to emigration today than in the 1990s.

Overall, 25 year-olds as proportion of total Live Register today are at their historical low of 15.4%:


Friday, November 1, 2013

1/11/2013: Decent News on Live Register Front: October 2013

Live Register numbers for October released yesterday are pretty good, for a change. 

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, overall official Live Register counts declined to 409,900 from 413,600 in September. Seasonally-adjusted LR is now down 5.60% y/y - an improvement on decline of 4.9% recorded back in September.

3mo MA also is down 5.03% year on year, and 2.2% lower on 3mo through July 2013. 

So decent headline readings, consistent with continued trends working through LR overall:
1) Outflows due to new jobs creation
2) Outflows due to emigration and benefits expirations

Level changes: m/m down 3,700 and y/y down 24,300. 

Compared with Q1 2011 average - the last period prior to the current Government coming into office, Live Register is down 3.8% in the last 3 months through October 2013.



Two charts above also show Live Register with State Training Programmes participation added to it (LR+STPP). This broader measure of LR currently stands at 485,850 in October (I use September figure for STPPs as this is reported with one month lag). Assuming this holds, LR+STPP numbers are now 5.8% below where they were in October 2012 (note, September STPP figure more likely underestimates the October numbers, as there is very strong volatility and seasonal increases in September-November). 

This contrast with 3.7% decrease in LR+STPP recorded in September. Now, again - keep in mind that September numbers are the true comparative, as they are reflective of the recorded levels of STPPs. 

Back to october figures. The trend for LR+STPP is now to the downside when we strip out some of the monthly volatility. 3mo MA for LR+STPP currently runs at 1.35% lower than 3mo MA through July 2013 and is down 4.2% y/y. This confirms the decline of 2.4% recorded in LR+STPP y/y basis for the 3 months through July 2013.

Current 3mo MA is 4.7% below Q1 2011 reading for LR+STPP.

Broadly-speaking, the numbers are encouraging.

Another interesting trend in the LR participation by the under-25 years of age: this is down massive 10.4% y/y in October and was down 10.3% in September. On 3mo MA basis, the figures are down 10.4% y/y and are down 3.4% on previous 3mo MA through July 2013. I wonder how much of these declines is due to cuts to benefits and expirations of benefits and younger people removing themselves out of the labour force.


Finally, Casual and Part-time Workers on LR have fallen 5.1% y/y in October and were down 3.3% in September. On 3mo MA basis, the figures are down 5.7% on previous 3mo period through July, and are down 3.6% y/y.


Summary: overall we have encouraging changes in the LR. More analysis is needed to decompose these into jobs creation numbers as opposed to benefits expirations and emigration. More current data is needed on State Training Programmes participation (this will be available for October when November LR is released). A summary of changes is shown in the chart below:



Updated: Revealing some of the mysteries of 'improving' Live Register, here's an article from The Examiner: http://www.irishexaminer.com/budget/news/reality-behind-live-register-stats-246183.html

Thursday, August 29, 2013

29/8/2013: Some positives v negatives from QNHS data: Q2 2013

Latest QNHS figures from Ireland are encouraging. Actually, given much of the tough news on the front of employment and jobs creation prior, these are heart warming. Here are the headlines:

Employment:
  • "There was an annual increase in employment of 1.8% or 33,800 in the year to the second quarter of 2013, bringing total employment to 1,869,900. This compares with an annual increase in employment of 1.1% in the previous quarter and a decrease of 1.3% in the year to Q2 2012." This is good. Employment is up against adverse demographic effects, which is good, but it is also up due to superficial effects of reclassifications of some categories (see warning below).
  • Even better news: "Full-time employment increased by 21,600 or 1.5% in the year to Q2 2013 while part-time employment increased by 12,100 or 2.8% over the year." So levels of increase in full-time employment are outstripping increases in part-time employment, implying that average jobs pool quality is not declining anymore.
  • This marks third consecutive quarter of q/q increases in employment: "On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment increased by 9,600 (+0.5%) in the quarter." There was a seasonally adjusted increase in employment of 9,000 (+0.5%) in Q1 2013 and 12,100 (+0.7%) in Q4 2012.
  • Employment increases and decreases composition are not sending a good signal, with higher value-added sub-categories of employment up: "Employment fell in five of the fourteen economic sectors over the year... The greatest rates of decline were recorded in the Administration and support service activities(-7.9% or -5,000), Transportation and storage (-5.4% or -4,900) and Public administration and defence; compulsory social security (-4.5% or -4,500) sectors. The largest rates of increase were recorded in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing (+18.7% or 16,300) and the Accommodation and food service activities(+8.0% or 9,600) sectors. 
  • Here is a warning shot on the above figures: "In the case of the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector it can be noted that estimates of employment in this sector have shown to be sensitive to sample changes over time." So, wait... +16,300 'new' jobs in Agriculture etc are really old jobs reclassified... or at least a large share of these are... Oops.. Note that this exactly matches decrease in the 'Not in the labour force' category (-16,300 y/y) and this knocks out quite a bit of wind out of the 'jobs creation' figures sails...

Unemployment:
  • "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 13.8% to 13.7% over the quarter while the number of persons unemployed fell marginally by 500 persons, again on a seasonally adjusted basis." This is news in so far it is 'official' QNHS reading, but we knew 13.7% figure back in May when we had the standardised rate of unemployment estimate from Live Register.
  • "Unemployment decreased by 22,200 (-6.9%) in the year to Q2 2013 bringing the total number of persons unemployed to 300,700. This is the fourth quarter in succession where unemployment has declined on an annual basis." Which is good news, indeed, except, wait... what about the 16,300 'new' jobs in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing flagged above? Marginal decline of just 500 in terms of q/q seasonally-adjusted unemployment is a poor reading, to be honest. Better than an increase, but still, very weak. This weakness suggests that the bulk of 22,200 declines in unemployment rosters is due to exits and reclassifications of workers, not due to jobs creation.
  • "The long-term unemployment rate decreased from 9.2% to 8.1% over the year to Q2 2013. Long-term unemployment accounted for 58.2% of total unemployment in Q2 2013 compared with 61.8% a year earlier and 56.1% in the second quarter of 2011." What we do not know here is whether this decrease was due to exits from benefits or entries into jobs or move to state-run training programmes. I will do analysis on these later, so stay tuned.

Labour force participation:

  • Good news: "The total number of persons in the labour force in the second quarter of 2013 was 2,170,700, representing an increase of 11,500 (+0.5%) over the year. This compares with an annual labour force decrease of 19,600 (-0.9%) in Q2 2012." 
  • The above is a good bit of news and it is made even better when we consider that increases in labour force were driven by increased participation rather than by demographic effects. In Q2 2013 there was a negative demographic effect cutting -16,300 from the overall labour force. This was more than offset by "a positive participation effect of 27,800 on the size of the labour force over the year.
  • There was "an increase in the overall participation rate from 60.1% to 60.5% over the year to Q2 2013." Which is excellent news.
  • "The number of persons not in the labour force in Q2 2013 was 1,415,600, a decrease of 16,300 (-1.1%) over the year." This seems to be related to reclassifications into Agriculture, etc. sector.
To summarise:
We have some positive news above, but overall, numbers remain obscured by reclassifications, changes in composition and lack of clarity on flows in- and out- of unemployment. 

Analysis of broader measures of unemployment, more indicative of underlying quality and nature of changes in the aggregate figures, is to follow, so stay tuned.

Friday, June 7, 2013

7/6/2013: Government 'scorecard' on unemployment: May 2013

In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/762013-live-register-may-2013-headline.html) I looked at the very broad trends in the Live Register data for May 2013. This time, let's do something slightly cheeky. Recall that the Government is keen on referencing jobs creation and unemployment reduction numbers as the sign of the success of the state policies. Recall also, that I have previously showed, repeatedly, that at the very least when it comes to broader unemployment data, these claims might be a serious over-stretching of reality (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/05/3052013-official-broader-unemployment.html and http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/05/3152013-part-time-v-full-time.html ).

Before we proceed, let us recognise the following facts and plausible conjectures:

  1. Irish Government has inherited a massive task when it comes to dealing with unemployment and jobs creation on foot of the mistakes made by the previous Government and, more importantly, on foot of an unprecedented economic crisis we face;
  2. Irish Government has very limited resources it can deploy to deal with unemployment crisis;
  3. Irish Government has been making, in my opinion, honest efforts to attempt dealing with the crisis.
With the above points recognised, let's build a table measuring the current Government progress on jobs creation based on Live Register stats. With a dose of over-exaggeration (please, do not take this as a direct indictment of the Government efforts etc, just as a response to Government-own propensity to push out unemployment numbers as evidence of own success), here is 

Irish Government Performance Score Card

As marked by blue color, Official Live Register tends to confirm Government's claims: since taking the office, this coalition saw, to-date, a 3.8% reduction in the Official Live Register. However, the same period saw an increAse of 4.3% in casual and part-time workers who require some unemployment supports to sustain themselves and their families, as well as a massive 32% increase in state training programme participants. The latter is good, in so far as people are getting at least some training and apprenticeships access, but it is also bad news for the Government, as it means that in reality, actual numbers of those receiving Live Register unemployment assistance and supports rose 0.8% on Q1 2011, not fallen. Meanwhile, as we know, over Q1 2011-Q1 2013, official labour force numbers fell 0.55%.

7/6/2013: Live Register May 2013: Headline Trends


Live Register numbers for May 2013 were out yesterday and I am only now getting to them (busy few days speaking and dealing with students etc), so here is the first of two posts on the subject. As usual, first up: headline numbers.

-- Total number of persons on Live Register in May stood at 426,100, which is 700 down on April 2013. Y/y LR is down 2.52% and this is an improvement on 2.29% decline recorded in April 2013. To-date Q2 2013 figures are down 0.53% on Q1 2013 and down 2.58% on Q2 2012. Again, as with monthly readings, this y/y decline in Q2 2013 to-date is deeper than the decline in Q1 2013 which posted -2.29%.
-- Total number of Live Register supports recipients to-date (official number, as distinct of the actual one - see data on state training participants below) is 266,607 ahead of pre-crisis 2000-2007 average.




In the charts above, I am referencing Live Register inclusive of the State Training Programmes participants. The reason for this separate data reporting is that while they continue to receive unemployment (Live Register) benefits, they are not included in the official Live Register counts. Please note: state training programmes participation is reported with 1 month lag compared to Live Register, so the latest number we have is for April 2013, which means that combined metric for May simply incorporates May 2013 data for Live Register, plus April 2013 data for State Training Programmes participation.

  • In April 2013, there were 86,042 Live Register supports recipients who were officially engaged in State-run Training Programmes (STP). This was up 4.72% on April 2012.
  • In April 2013, m/m change in Live Register was -200, while m/m change in STP was +673. In other words, in April, entire m/m 'decrease' in the official Live Register was 3 times smaller than an increase in STP.
  • In April 2013, y/y change in official Live Register was -10,000, with 3,881 of these accounted for by increases in STP. 
  • Put differently, in April 2013, m/m there was no decrease in unemployment benefits recipients' numbers at all, and in fact there was a m.m increase in these of some 473. Also in April 2013, y/y officially-reported massive decrease of 10,000 in official Live Register was really a smaller scale (albeit still welcome) decrease of 6,119.
  • In May 2013, estimated Live Register + STP measure of unemployment benefits claimants stood at 512,142, which represents 23.96% of the labour force. Put differently, almost 1/4 of Ireland's labour force is currently in receipt of some form of unemployment assistance, which is well ahead of the official Live Register-implied estimated unemployment rate of 13.7% which would correspond to roughly 292,838 individuals.




  • The numbers of those on the Live Register under the age of 25 was stuck in May at the same level of 68,900 as in March and April 2013. This represents a decline on 69,700 recorded in February and roughly corresponds to the levels last seen in December 2008-February 2009. However, it is most likely that these numbers are superficially depressed by the STP participation. Sadly, we do not have data on STPs reported regularly by the CSO to determine the exact extent of unemployment supports in the younger population.
  • In May 2013, 16.17% of all Live Register supports recipients were under 25.
  • Y/y, number of younger LR recipients was down 7.27% and so far in Q2 2013 the number is down on average 7.48% on Q2 2012.


Per CSO: "The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in May 2013 was 191,997." Overall, the number of long term claimants increased by 3,268 (+1.7%) y/y, while the proportion of the short-term claimants dropped to 54.5% (229,740) from 56.4% (244,178). This suggests that, as would be normally expected, short-term unemployed are finding it easier to find jobs than their longer term counterparts, and that, potentially, this effect is being reinforced by accelerating exits of the long-term unemployed due to benefits expiration.

Saturday, April 6, 2013

6/4/2013: Part-time & Casual Employment Supports in Ireland

Let's do some more numbers crunching on Irish Live Register for Q1 2013.

In Q1 2012 official Live Register declined 9,902 on Q1 2012 (-2.26%) and down 14,936 on Q1 2011 (-3.37%). Sounds like some achievement. 

Alas, of the above numbers:
  • Of the 9,902 decline on Q1 2012, the decline was just 7,154 when we take into the account state training programmes (-1.38%) and there was a rise of 1,181 (+1.34%) in the numbers who claim Live Register supports while being in casual and part-time employment (more on this below). Thus, the numbers of those fully dependent on Live Register have fallen only 8,335 (-1.94%) on Q1 2012.
  • Of 14,936 decline on Q1 2011 (-3.37%), there was actually an increase in those claiming supports of 3,217 (+0.63%) when we take into the account state training programmes, and there was a rise of 4,352 (+5.13%) in the numbers who claim Live Register supports while being in casual and part-time employment (more on this below). Thus, the numbers of those fully dependent on Live Register have fallen only 1,135 (-0.27%) on Q1 2012.

Now, some would remark that it is better when people are part-time or casually employed, then when they are fully dependent on Live Register supports. I shall, of course, agree with such a statement. However, let's look at what has been happening with casual and part-time employment numbers over time.

  • In 2002-2007 monthly volatility(measured by standard deviation) in the numbers on Live Register who were in casual and part-time employment stood at 1,031. This has risen to 3,979 for the period of 2010-present. In other words, overall casual and part-time employment might have declined significantly in terms of stability of income it offers and, thus reliance on Live Register. This can be due to different quality of skills and occupations for people singing onto Live Register with casual and part-time employment, or it might be due to changes in Live Register supports' eligibility, or both.
  • Of all categories of Live Register signees, volatility of numbers on Live Register has risen only  for part-time and casual workers over 2010-present compared to 2002-2007.2
  • For the Live Register inclusive of the state training programmes participants, volatility has actually fallen over the above periods, driven by declines in volatility for the numbers of signees who are fully reliant on Live Register supports.


To see the deterioration in the quality of casual and part-time employment linked to Live Register participation, consider the chart below:


The chart clearly shows dramatic increase in seasonality of the numbers of those on Live Register in casual and part-time employment for the end of Q2-beginning of Q3 periods since January 2010 as compared to previous years (2002-2007). You can see that the same effect does not appear in the numbers of signees fully dependent on Live Register supports:


6/4/2013: 80 years to deflate unemployment crisis in Ireland?


Continuing with the Live Register data theme: in the first post I covered broader long-term trends in the LR, with the second post looking at some sub-trends relating to nationality of Live Register signees. Here: a quick note on the size of the problem overall.

Total number of persons (officially) on the Live Register declined 2.07% y/y in March, following a steeper decline of 2.40% in February. Compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.65%.

Thus, March 2013 reading was 165.8% ahead of the 2004-2007 average, 36.1% ahead of 2008-2009 average and is 3.38% below 2010-present average. Taking Q1 2013 average, the Live Register (again, this is official count, excluding those on State training programmes) was up 1.76% on Q4 2012, down 2.26% on Q1 2012 and down 3.37% on Q1 2011.

For the adjusted Live Register (accounting for state training programmes participation), Q1 2013 q/q rate of increase in the Live Register was 1.53% and y/y rate of decrease was -1.38%.

Let me remind you the size of the problem overall:


At the above annual rates of decline (based on Q1 2013 data), it will take 
  • 12.5 years from now to reach 2008-2009 average Live Register levels (which would be consistent with unemployment supports at the levels well above those observed in the 1980s and 1990s) and 
  • 40.5 years to reach 2004-2007 average or 37 years to reach 2000-2007 average.


If you want a really scary number, using y/y change in Q1 2013 in Adjusted Live Register numbers, it will take us 81 years from today to reduce Adjusted Live Register counts to 2000-2007 average level. As a robustness check, the number will be 79 years were we to use Q4 2012 annual rate of decline.

Clearly, the 'turnaround' being signaled by the Live Register is simply not enough to deal with the current problem of unemployment and equally clearly, at current rates of economic 'growth' we either need to raise the speed of economic activity expansion by a factor of 10 or carry out some drastic measures on reforming our unemployment supports in order to see significant reductions in Live Register any time soon.

6/4/2013: Irish Live Register by Nationality: Some Trends


Yesterday, I blogged about Live Register data on overall levels of unemployment supports in Ireland. Today - few charts summing up Live Register trends by nationality.

Total number of persons (officially) on the Live Register declined 2.07% y/y in March, following a steeper decline of 2.40% in February. Compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.65%.

Meanwhile, the number of Irish Nationals on Live Register fell 1.89% y/y in March, following a decline of 2.39% in February. Current reading stands 3.68% below March 2011 and is down 10.68% on the crisis-period peak. Q1 2013 posted an increase of 1.43% on Q4 2012 and is down 2.21% on Q1 2012 and down 3.45% on Q1 2011.

The number of Non-Irish Nationals on Live Register declined at stronger 2.86% y/y in March than for Irish Nationals. larger decline of 2.45% was recorded for Non-Nationals in February 2013 as well. However, compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.50% against the comparable period decline of 3.68% for the nationals. Q1 2013 reading for non-Nationals was 3.31% ahead of Q4 2012 - a sharper increase than for Nationals. Q1 2013 reading was down 2.50% for non-Nationals compared to Q1 2012, which represents a sharper decline than for Nationals. Compared to Q1 2011, however, Q1 2013 reading is down 3.03% for non-Nationals against 3.45% for Nationals.

In relative terms, Irish Nationals accounted for 82.16% of the Live Register in March 2013 against 82.01% in march 2012, while for non-Nationals the same ratios were 17.84% in Q1 2013 against 17.99% in Q1 2012. Chart below illustrates:


With small scale changes, there is no to-date reversal in the flat trend in relative shares of two groups in total Live Register numbers that was established around mid-2009 and that corresponds to higher share of Live Register captured by non-Nationals and lower share captured by Nationals. You can clearly see the overall flat trend.

In dynamic terms, chart below illustrates time trends in Live Register presence of three core groups: EU15 (ex-Ireland), EU12 (Accession States) and non-EU migrants.


Share of the EU15 (ex-Ireland) migrants of the total Live Register count fell to 4.8% in March 2013 from 4.87% in March 2012. Over the same time, share of EU12 (Accession States) migrants rose from 9.91% to 9.94%, while share of non-EU migrants declined from 3.21% to 3.10%.

Again, quite interesting dynamics in the above chart. For EU12 Accession States, strong seasonality (and these are already seasonally adjusted stats) shows rises and falls in temporary employment in agriculture and retail sectors, but overall trend since mid-2010 is flat. In contrast, EU15 ex-Ireland trend is that of a decline in Live Register presence. Live Register numbers for non-EU nationals is basically flat since late 2007 and shows no elevation due to crisis. In other words, EU12 nationals number on the Live Register were a strongest driver of Live Register participation increases amongst non-nationals during the crisis and now are changing roughly in line with Live Register changes overall. EU15 ex-Ireland numbers have declined relative to overall Live Register, and non-EU nationals numbers have fallen over the period 2006-2008 and then remained steady in line with overall Live Register trend.

Friday, April 5, 2013

5/4/2013: Live Register March 2013


In light of the recent statement by the IMF about Ireland's broader measure of unemployment, let's ask two other simple questions:

  1. How many people in Ireland receive unemployment supports? 
  2. What percentage of the workforce in Ireland receives unemployment supports?
Answer in two charts based on latest CSO data:

Q1:

A1: In March 2013, there were 425,088 individuals on Live Register and in February 2013 (the latest for which this data is available) 83,421 individuals engaged in state-sponsored training programmes that receive Live Register supports, but are not counted officially as being on Live Register. Thus total number of those in receipt of unemployment supports in Ireland is 508,509 individuals.

This means that while Live Register official numbers have declined 2.065% y/y in March, total number of Live Register supports recipients has declined only 1.355% on March 2012.

To be exactly precise on this, take February 2013 figures alone: in February 2013, total number of those in receipt of Live Register supports was 512,297 which was a decrease in y/y terms of 1.45%, against the official Live Register decrease reported of 2.40%.


Q2:

A2: Using Q4 2012 data for labour force participation (reported via QNHS with a lag compared to Live Register), 27.29% of Irish labour force were in receipt of Live Register assistance in March 2013. 

Again, the data is reported with different lags, so for exact comparative we have to go to December 2012 when 24.23% of Irish labour force were in receipt of Live Register assistance.



Oh, as a bonus, here's a historical chart showing Live Register supports numbers for Ireland since 1967: