Looking into 2013, three international media outlets recently asked me for my comments on the global economic outlook for the next year. Here is the latest iteration of my thoughts on the topic:
This is an impressive performance in the case of Russia, given that the country currently enjoys GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power parity differences) of D17,698 (as measured in International dollars) against ID12,038 for Brazil, ID9,146 for China and ID3,851 for India. Russia will continue closing its income gap with the euro area in 2013-2017. In 2010, Russian GDP per capita (adjusting for price difference and exchange rates variation) stood at 47.9% of the euro area. This is expected to rise to 54.1% in 2013, reaching 60.7% by 2017, according to the IMF projections. Russia's relative position as the wealthiest economy of all BRICs is further reinforced by the fact that aggregate investment and savings in the country are set to remain ahead of those in Brazil in 2013, continuing the trend established since the beginning of the Great Recession, and this trend remains independent of the Government sector.
- enhancing Russia's institutional capital by enacting deep reforms of tax codes, public administration and corruption, judiciary reforms and law enforcement reforms
- dramatically increasing the rate of technical, labour and TFP productivity growth
- facilitating transition of agriculture, modern manufacturing, telecommunications and financial services to post-WTO accession platforms