Monday, December 28, 2009

Economics 28/12/2009: Euro area forecast for growth

New Eurocoin is out and signaling improvement of the Euro area economy, albeit at a slowing rate. Inputs first:
Industrial production is tapering off through November - despite some seasonal pressure to rebuild stocks pre-sales season. Ditto for PMIs:
France and Spain continue to worry in the above due to clearly weakening domestic demand, while Italy and Germany are showing signs of advanced orders falling slightly off - future exports might be challenged.

Consumer weaknesses are highlighted below:
Loud and clear!

So forecast is for moderation in Eurocoin rise and thus a slowdown in the increase in growth into Q2 2010. Will Q1 2010 be the strongest bounce of 2010?
Forecast still to the upside in Q1 and Q2 2010, but this depends on Q4 2009 results, which

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